The recent spike in food prices made me curious to know the past and current rate of grain (cereal) production and consumption by the world. I downloaded the USDA (U.S. Dept. of Agriculture) data set from their website.

Grains supply nearly half of our energy needs in a day. Consequently, their sufficient production is essential to avoid a food crisis. (photo from 4.bp.blogspot.com)

Below shows the world production and consumption of grains (barley, maize, millet, oats, rice, rye, sorghum, wheat, and mixed grains) from 1960 to 2010.

World grain production and consumption (1960-2010)

From less than a billion tonnes of grains produced in 1960, the world is currently producing more than 2.1 billion tonnes. The world, of course, cannot consume more grains than it can produce, so the annual grain production is higher than the annual grain consumption, though some years see a slightly higher consumption of grains than their production. This higher consumption rate can occur when grains from world stock inventories held from previous years are consumed.

Worryingly, the mean annual increase of world grain production after 1990 is lower than the mean annual increase in world grain consumption.

Average annual increase in world grain production and consumption (1960-2010)

This means after 1990, the world is consuming grains at a higher or faster rate than the world can produce the grains. From 1971 to 1990, the mean annual grain production increases at faster rate than the rate of increase in the grain consumption. However, the situation is reversed after 1990, where the world consumed grains at a faster rate of increase than that for grain production. In the 2001-2010 period, for instance, the grain consumption rate of increase is higher by nearly 12% than the rate of increase in grain production.

What about for Malaysia? For grains, our country produces mostly rice, little maize, and no wheat. I was curious about our country’s long term trend in grain consumption. From the same USDA website, I downloaded our country’s dataset, and I plotted the following charts.

Malaysia's total grain consumption (1960-2010)

Malaysia's grain consumption per capita per year (1960-2010)

Malaysia consumes grains at a rather steady increasing rate. From 1.6 million tonnes in 1960, Malaysia now consumes about 6.8 million tonnes  in 2010.

There is some fluctuation in Malaysia’s grain consumption per capita (per person). Nevertheless, the chart shows that after 1970, there is a general increase in the grain consumption per capita. In 1971, Malaysians consumed about 178 kg of grains per person per year which increased to 243 kg in 2010. Currently, the world consumes 326 kg of grains per person per year, so this means Malaysians consume about 25% less grains than the rest of the world.

Nevertheless, the rate of increase in the grain consumption for the world is much lower than that for Malaysia. After 1970, Malaysians consume increasingly more grains every year by an average of 1.6 kg per person per year as compared to 0.05 kg per person per year for the world.

As mentioned earlier, apart from rice, Malaysia produces very little grains. Malaysia must depend on other countries to grow sufficient grains to meet our country’s annual increase in grain consumption of 1.6 kg per person per year. The world, however, sees a higher rate of increase in grain consumption than that for grain production. So, in periods of scarcity in the world food market, Malaysia would face trade competition to purchase sufficient grains to meet the country’s needs.